These States are Bucking Mortgage Delinquency Trends

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Why Did Mortgage Delinquencies Rise


As of June 2019, the 30 days or more delinquency rate was 4%, a 0.3% year-over-year decline from June 2018’s rate of 4.3% according to the latest Loan Performance Insights Report from CoreLogic. Overall delinquency rates are near the lowest level since at least 1999.

“A strong economy and eight-plus years of home price growth have made mortgage foreclosure an infrequent event,” said Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic. “This backdrop will help the mortgage market limit delinquencies in most of the country whenever a downturn should start.”

Despite the record low delinquency rates, several states and metropolitan areas posted small annual increases in June. The highest gains were in Vermont (+0.7%), New Hampshire (+0.3%), Nebraska (+0.2%) and Minnesota (0.2%), while the other four states, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin and Connecticut, experienced a nominal gain of just 0.1%.

“While the nation continues to post near-record-low mortgage delinquency rates, we are seeing signs of emerging stress in some states,” said Frank Martell, President and CEO of CoreLogic. “We saw rates jump in states such as Vermont, New Hampshire, Nebraska and Minnesota that weren’t tied to a natural disaster.”

Additionally, the foreclosure inventory rate was 0.4% in June 2019, down 0.1% from June 2018, while serious delinquency rates declined in every state except Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota and Virginia, which stayed the same.

By CBSA, there were 20 metropolitan areas where the serious delinquency rate increased, and 48 metropolitan areas where the serious delinquency rate remained the same. All the remaining metropolitan areas saw the serious delinquency rate decrease.

The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30-days past due was 1.1% in June 2019, up from 0.9% in June 2018. By comparison, in January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis, the current-to-30-day transition rate was 1.2% and peaked in November 2008 at 2%.





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