That’s what the latest forecast from Realtor.com — the largest Internet home marketing company — is forecasting for 2020.
DFW is one of about two dozen U.S. markets that Realtor.com economists predict will see small declines in home costs next year.
In the DFW area, the researchers are forecasting a slight 0.5% retreat in home cost.
While just a tiny decrease, it’s the first such drop since the North Texas home market recovered from the Great Recession of a year ago.
Local home prices have soared by almost 70% since the economic downturn.
“The decline is a result of market prices outpacing incomes for the past few years,” said George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com. “It mirrors similar trends in other large metros across the U.S.”
About a fourth of the largest home markets across the country are showing a decline in prices next year, according to Realtor.com’s new forecast.
“Overall buyer demand will remain very robust, particularly at the entry level, in 2020,” Ratiu says in the forecast. “However, as consumers indicated that they expect a moderation in economic activity in 2020, the housing market is likely to reflect the economic headwinds.
“Sales of existing homes are expected to decline 1.8% in 2020, as the continuing supply shortage and moderating price growth will hamper buyers and tamp down sellers’ expectations,” he said. “The decline in sales is projected to be accompanied by a flattening in price growth.”
Realtor.com is forecasting a 4.9% drop in home sales in the DFW area next year.
Home sales in North Texas are up 2% year-over-year through the first 11 months of 209 and median sales prices are 3% ahead of where they were a year ago, according to the latest data from local real estate agents.
Realtor.com’s forecast expects a slight decrease in both home sales and prices in the Austin area in 2020.
Prices are expected to rise modestly in the Houston area and San Antonio.
James Gaines, chief economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, said he’d be surprised to see home prices retreat significantly next year in Texas’ big city markets.
“Millennials are coming up and are going to be entry-level buyers and there may be more sales in the lower price brackets,” he said. “You get a shift in the data points because of that.”
Tribune Content Agency